This 6 hour course introduces participants to the principles of systematic risk analysis, with a focus on identifying, evaluating, and managing the risks and uncertainties commonly encountered in modern oil field development. It provides participants with a broad understanding of essential concepts and practical examples of decision analysis. Throughout the course, different types of uncertainty and risk are explored, along with methods for incorporating them into oil and gas project evaluations. A central theme of the course is the application of a structured decision analysis framework - using sensitivity analysis, decision trees, and the value of information - within both deterministic and probabilistic evaluation methods for oil and gas projects.

•           Explain the components of the decision analysis process and clarify the responsibilities of management and the analysis team.
•          Interpret and present risk and uncertainty using probability distributions.
•           Apply probability concepts and distributions, including updating initial assessments when new, imperfect information becomes available.
•           Perform expected value calculations using decision trees, payoff tables, and Monte Carlo simulation techniques (including manual calculations).
•           Evaluate investment decisions and design options using decision tree analysis.
•        Develop decision models to compute expected values using decision trees, payoff tables, and Monte Carlo simulations.